The latest episode of IBF’s On Demand podcast is available to watch now.

Forecast Value Add (FVA) is a wonderful way to identify which inputs and activities increase your forecast accuracy and which decrease it. It can be a real game changer for your forecast accuracy and can identify bias from other functions.

Special guest Sara Park, Vice President, Exec S&OP, Forecasting & Supply Chain Planning at Coca-Cola, reveals how you can get started with FVA quickly and easily, and Eric Wilson CPF discuss why you should move away from MPE and MAPE to FVA.

Watch previous episodes:

• Episode 5: Is S&OP Dead?
• Episode 4: Predictive Analytics Implementation
• Episode 3: Segmentation & Clustering
• Episode 2: Forecasting Amid Coronavirus
• Episode 1: Will AI Take Our Jobs?

Over 70% of predictive analytics implementation initiatives fail. Eric Wilson CPF and special guest, Misty Doan CPF, dive into how to make digital transformation work.

Hear how Misty achieved a 26% improvement in forecast accuracy after 18 months, reduced excess inventory, increased fill rates by 10%, and reduced premium freight costs and fines by 17%. And hear Eric’s 5 tips for digital transformation success.

Learn more about effective change management and digital transformation to help ensure you’re the minority who successfully implement software solutions.

Click here to see all previous episodes of IBF On Demand.

The special issue of the Journal of Business Forecasting, Technology in Forecasting & Planning, is now available for download. Download it here.

This special issue is designed to help you make the right investment in forecasting and planning software. It includes articles on how to define your planning software requirements and how to avoid common post-implementation pitfalls, brought to you by experienced planning leaders that have taken the journey you may be embarking on now. It also features excellent commentary on whether Artificial Intelligence should be a decision maker or decision supporter in your organization, and valuable insight into how blockchain will improve demand planning in the years to come.

Underlying all this, we have a revealing interview with Doug Laney, the creator of Infonomics, which reveals the importance of developing a data-centric culture to properly leverage new technology. I am also pleased to say we interviewed Sir Ralf Speth, the CEO of Jaguar Land Rover, who discusses JLR’s journey in Big Data and the IoT. See the full list of articles here.

IBF spoke with Jaguar Land Rover CEO, Sir Ralf Speth, about Big Data and the IoT.

Articles in this special issue:

• Planning Software – The Features You Need, What It Costs & Estimated ROI
• Blockchain – Its Role in Demand and Supply Planning
• Interview With CEO of Jaguar Land Rover, Sir Ralf Speth
• 4 Dangerous Habits That Can Lead to Abandonment of Forecasting & Planning Software
• Shimano North America’s S&OP Technology Journey
• Artificial Intelligence – Decision Maker or Supporter?
• A Primer on Probabilistic Demand Planning
• The Next Generation of Demand Management Technology
• Interview With Doug Laney, Best-Selling Author & Creator of Infonomics
• And more

Become An IBF Member & Get Full Access To The Journal

When you become an IBF member, you get the Journal of Business Forecasting delivered to your door quarterly, as well as up to $100 off all events, access to exclusive members only tutorials and workshops, access to the entire IBF knowledge library, and more. Get your membership.

The S&OP Unplugged video taken from IBF’s Best Practices Conference is now available for free download – available in full for a short time only. This special recording features thought leaders in the Forecasting , Demand Planning and S&OP fields, and reveals critical issues such as the imminent (and dangerous) skills gap, finding the ‘hidden gold’ in unstructured social media data, and rethinking product exits. This first episode focuses on the skills gap and solutions to hiring and retaining talent. Below are some of the key highlights and special guests sharing knowledge.

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The Thought Leaders

Special guests featured in the video are:

Sara Park, VP Planning and Logistics Capabilities, Coca-Cola

Mark Covas, CPF, Director of Consumer Demand Planning, Johnson & Johnson

Eric Wilson, CPF, Director of Planning, Escalade Sports

Todd Gallant, ACPF, VP, Integrated Planning, Deckers Brands

Joe Eschenbrenner, ACPF, Director of Demand Planning, PUMA Group

On Confronting The Skills Gap in S&OP Before It’s Too Late

One of the key issues discussed is the critical issue of a skills shortage in forecasting and demand planning – one that is set to bite sooner rather than later. As volatility and uncertainty become standard features of today’s markets, greater importance is being placed on the forecasting and planning functions. That means more investment in planning teams, and subsequently more job openings.

ERIC WILSON: “A lot of the baby boomers who didn’t leave in the recession are leaving now and we have supply chain jobs that are coming in and nobody to fill them. It’ll be a 4:1 ratio in the next few years. It will definitely become an issue because we see a workforce leaving.”

A lot of different functions want the skillsets we have: Marketing, Finance and Sales…I just lost one to Sales.

On Retaining Talent

Talent retention remains a key concern, with companies keen to develop the careers of young supply chain professionals and provide opportunities for growth to stop them from leaving. Providing a pathway for them to succeed, however, is proving difficult:

ERIC WILSON: “A lot of different functions want the skillsets we have: Marketing, Finance and Sales…I just lost one to Sales. How we retain the skillsets we need without just being a feeder for other functions?”

TODD GALLANT: “How do we the keep managers advocating for them, and making sure they’re bringing up young people into the executive level, when they [managers] don’t fully understand the profession yet?”

JOE ESCHENBRENNER: “You need career fulfilment, a career vision, and a career path that’s defined. You need to be a positive organization that creates a positive, fun atmosphere, because we work really hard. When people want to come to work on Monday, it’s harder to leave that organization, and when you create the opportunity to move up in the organization, that’s your opportunity to retain them.”

JOE ESCHENBRENNER: “The stress and pressures at a certain level are different depending on the company, and they’re also not always visible to the rest of the organization.”

MARK COVAS: “You have to show there’s a way to move forward and up…where you show all these wonderful opportunities that exist based on the capabilities we’re building in you. The fear I have seen is ‘I’m going into a black hole, is there a path out of here?’”
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They may not have that knowledge today, but they have that ability to learn. Maybe they didn’t go to school for it, but they have the intellect for it.

On Developing Existing Talent Within The Company

The session revealed a need to bring in and develop people within the company but outside of the forecasting and planning functions. The absence of graduates coming into the role forces companies to train staff from the Customer Service and Finance departments to fill the skills gap. Whilst the need was made clear, there were doubts surrounding how that development would happen:

TODD GALLANT: How do you develop the talent you already have, taking people from Customer Service roles and Finance, what do you do with them? The thing I like about the Customer Service people we brought in is that they’re eager, and they have communication skills, know how to read people, and influence. But honestly out of the 8 or so people, [brought in from Customer Service] 2 or 3 are really struggling with the analytics.”

JOE  ESCHENBRENNER: “They may not have that knowledge today, but they have that ability to learn, maybe they didn’t go to school for it, but they have the intellect for it.”

 If I had to pick between analytics capability and communication, I’ll take communication – if they have learning agility.

On Changing Demand Planning and Forecasting Into a Dual Role

Analytics skills are in short supply, with companies facing great difficulty in finding people with both the analytical and communication skills required for the role. There is potential for natural communicators and collaborators who are not trained in analytics to learn it, given sufficient cognitive ability. However, it’s more challenging for quantitative mindsets to learn the collaborative and communicative aspects:

MARK COVAS: “If you do break up those roles, where do you find the talent? It’s difficult to find people with the capabilities – the analytical capabilities and social capabilities and team building ability. Is that a dual role? Do you have an analytical type of person and bring in a salesmanship capability type of person to sell the forecast?”

TODD GALLANT: “We had one guy who came to us with a lot of analytical capabilities – half the team cannot understand what he says but he’s learning from them in terms of how to sell a forecast, and they’re learning from him.”

ERIC WILSON: “Back against the wall, If I had to pick between analytics capability and communication, I’ll take communication – if they have learning agility.”

MARK COVAS: The technology now also allows people who have strong communication and collaboration [and not analytical capability] to succeed in that role. On the other hand, I am trying to fill a statistical forecasting role right now, and I found someone who is very competent in analytics, but doesn’t have the competencies to collaborate. Putting him that role would be setting him up for failure.”

Stay tuned for episode 2, featuring insight on Demand Planning and Big Data.

This recording was taken at IBF’s Demand Planning and Forecasting Conference in Orlando, FL.. To attend our upcoming events, see the 2018 schedule for demand planning and forecasting conferences.

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The latest IBF benchmarking report is out, titled “Benchmarking New Product Forecasting and Planning.” It is available for download here.

Surveying 791 forecasters and demand planners around the globe, the report sheds light on the role of New Products today and how forecasts are prepared, including models used, review frequency and acceptable forecast errors. Crucially, the report reveals insight into the difficulties of launching and forecasting new products amidst an increasingly difficult business environment.

New Products Are Crucial To Maintaining Market Share

The report find that New Products are increasingly important, and comprise increasing percentages of companies’ offerings. The differences by industry are revealing: Technology/Electronics and Healthcare feature on top at 27% and 22% respectively. By comparison, Industrial products and Chemicals are at 14%. Food/Beverages remain low at 12%.

New Product Launches Are Not So New

Arguably the most revealing part of IBF’s Benchmarking report into new product launches is that the vast majority of New Products are variations on existing products, specifically Line Extensions, market Extensions or Product Extensions. Just 20% of ‘New Products’, are completely new. The majority are Line Extensions (30%) or Product Extensions (27%).
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Companies Are Adapting to Intense Demand By Extending Lifespan

The report reinforces existing trends within the Fast Moving Consumer Goods (FMCG) industry, with the trend particularly pronounced in Tech and Electronics. To meet consumer demand for new products, companies are cutting lead time and cost by reworking or rebranding existing models. One example of this is Apple releasing new versions of the iPhone, having released 14 models between 2007 and 2016.

The benchmarking data supports the thesis that companies are repositioning products, lowering the price, reducing the content, and or selling in bulk in order to extend product lifespan.  This is how companies are overcoming the increasingly short product lifecycle environment.

Companies Creating Practical Solutions to Meet Demand, But Forecasting Gets Harder

IBF’s benchmarking data reveals that New Products face high forecast error, at 64%, compared to Product Improvement and Market Extension at 35% and 36% respectively.

Download the full report to see all the benchmarking data, including the forecasting models used in New Product forecasting, how new products are reviewed (independently or as part of the S&OP process), and how far ahead new products are forecast. See your company measures up.

Volume 32 Issue 3
Fall 2013

Click here to DOWNLOAD a sample copy of the latest Journal of Business Forecasting (JBF)

Click HERE to become an IBF member and get a JBF subscription FREE

FEATURED ARTICLES:

“How to Use What-If Analysis in Sales and Operations Planning”
By Sujit K. Singh and Jane B. Lee

In uncertain markets, what-if analysis is a must for demand and supply planning. The authors show how to use it by discussing a number of case studies, and the way to determine their impact. To make the most of this analysis, one has to go beyond standard technologies and use the one that is specific to this type of analysis.

“S&OP: An Opportunity to Lead from the Middle”
By John Hobby and Amy Jaeger

Based on their experience, the authors describe in detail how to develop and implement a robust S&OP process. To develop it, you need buy-in from upper management, support from all other stakeholders, clearly defined goals and a plan to achieve them, and deadlines when the project will start rolling and begin yielding benefits. It is a long, drawn-out process, but patience, persistence, and hard work will pay off in the end.

“Supply’s Demand-Shaping Roles”
By Larry Lapide

This column deals with demand-shaping activities, the primary responsibility of marketing and sales managers. However, while not responsible for demand-shaping per se, supply chain managers should play two important roles. The first of these is ensuring that supply is in place to meet all anticipated future demand. The second, often overlooked by these managers, is advocating that demand-shaping be done with supply in mind. The second role involves a better alignment of demand with potential available supply, and is aimed at maximizing profitability, in contrast to just maximizing revenues.

“Forecasting Challenges of the Spare Parts Industry”
By Michael Morris

Forecasting the demand for spare parts is very much different from finished goods. The author describes the unique problems that occur when forecasting spare parts, and how to best deal with them. He also discusses SKU proliferation as well as the legal obligations that accompany forecasting spare parts.

“Sales & Operations Planning: Sales’ Insight in the Planning Process”
By Andrew S. McCall

Sales input is the key to the success of an S&OP process. The author explains in detail how to use it and why. To make the process robust, we need executive support, sales team engagement, leverage, and accountability. The best way to leverage the input of Sales is to focus on the goals they are pursuing, and making transparent their input as well as ensuring they are adding value.

“Answers to Your Forecasting Questions”
By Chaman L. Jain, St. John’s University

“In a Stagflation Phase from Lack of Private Investment”
By Evangelos Otto Simos, Ph.D.

“The U.S. Economy…A Challenging Recovery… Sidestepping into the End of the Year”
By Jack Malehorn

Click HERE to become an IBF member and get a JBF subscription FREE

The Journal of Business Forecasting (JBF) has been providing jargon-free articles on how to improve demand planning, forecasting, supply chain, and S&OP, step-by-step for over 30 years. A subscription to the JBF comes with IBF membership at no additional cost.