“So I was wondering if you had a list of books you could recommend for me for Business Forecasting and Planning?” Nothing excites me more from a MBA student or someone early in their career asking me this question. 

Learning agility is a key core competency where a person demonstrates an interest in personal learning and development; and in the future changing workplace being adaptive and continuous learning is critical.  The continuous part is very important so instead of answering their question with a static list I am providing an ongoing adaptive list over time with a review or synopsis of the various books that influence, inspire, educate, or entertain me.

So as long as you have already read and checked off your own list Dr. Chaman Jain’s book the Fundamentals of Demand Planning and Forecasting that I reviewed last time, here is my next recommendation. If Dr. Jain’s book was the intro to business forecasting, here is your book for your second semester reading. Business Forecasting: Practical Problems and Solutions 2016 by Wiley and SAS Business Series, authored by Michael Gilliland, Len Tashman, and Udo Sglavo. Like the previous recommendation, this is a foundational book that covers a multitude of topics and compiles some of the field’s most important and influential articles into a single book for reference and enlightenment.

Business Forecasting: Practical Problems and Solutions is a must read for any forecaster or demand planner

You may begin to see a pattern in my recommendations, but I believe before we get into other aspects of our field (and current books I may be reading) we need to lay the ground work and truly understand the principles and concepts of what and why we do things. This is why this is the next must-read suggestion and needs a prominent place on every practitioner’s bookshelf.

One of the authors and editors, Michael Gilliland, is Product Marketing Manager for SAS forecasting software. He has written numerous articles for various publications, authored other books specifically on forecasting and planning and is a stalwart at IBF conferences for over a decade. He was most recently recognized as the IBF’s 2017 Lifetime Achievement in Business Forecasting & Planning award winner for his excellence, professional commitment, and dedication to advancing the field. Michael along with Dr. Tashman and Udo Sglavo use their combined decades of experience to assemble in one comprehensive resource the most influential studies and writings in applied forecasting.

‘Business Forecasting: Practical Problems and Solutions’ is a series of fifty or so relevant and informative articles from the authors as well as others that appeared in journals such as Foresight and Journal of Business Forecasting (JBF). It is an easy yet still in-depth read with each article short enough to enjoy in a single setting but comprehensive enough to keep you thinking after you put it down. It covers a wide range of topics and for some areas provides a few articles to give different perspectives and deeper insights. Some of the key areas in my opinion are in new product forecasting, process and politics, and of course my personal favorite forecast value added (FVA).

Whilst this book does give textbook best practices to do and worst practices to avoid, it is unique as well. What is hidden in the book, and why everyone in the field should read this early and often, is that it stresses in Michael’s own way that what we do is more than the math or science or techniques, but it is the person and art and principles that make good forecasts. This book gives data and forecast analysts, demand planners, and anyone involved in predictive analytics and planning process a hands-on and inspiring guide for improving your forecasting process.

I was quoted on the back-cover of the book praising Business Forecasting when it first was released saying “Finally, a book tailored to business forecasting that is comprehensive for everything from data gathering to the art and politics of explaining why we are wrong!” Today the only thing I would change in my statement is take out the finally and add the words “absolute must read.”

One of the questions I get most frequently from people just entering this discipline or wanting to expand their knowledge of business forecasting and planning is what books I recommend. Instead of just providing a list, we thought it would be more beneficial to provide an ongoing list over time with a review or synopsis of the various books that have influenced, inspired, educated, or entertained me. Through a series of posts, I can then focus on some books that are fundamental or foundational for demand planning and forecasting.

Before I go into what I may be reading today, I would be amiss if I did not first provide a reading suggestion and review of the first book I read in this field. In addition, it is also one of the most comprehensive books written in the demand planning and forecasting fields, covering practically every topic which a demand planner needs to know. For all of these reasons, I  feel it is only appropriate that it is the first book I review.

The book that started it all and would go on to become the demand planner’s bible.

Practical Guide to Business Forecasting by Graceway Publishing Company, Inc., written and edited by Dr. Chaman Jain, was originally released in 2001 and then re-released in 2012 as the Fundamentals of Demand Planning and Forecasting. Whilst it has gone through a few revisions since then, the content and relevance has been unceasing since its original release. This book has found its way onto many a practitioner’s bookshelf and is a must read for any serious demand planner or forecaster. As for myself and many others, this became my introduction to business forecasting and textbook for studying and preparing for the Institute of Business Forecasting, Certified Professional Forecaster (CPF) certification program and exams.

This book was the first how-to manual for business forecasting and demand planning

For our professional field, this book is an important contribution and was the first how-to manual for business forecasting and demand planning. It is laid out in sections covering every aspect of the roles and responsibilities with highlighted articles from various thought leaders and professionals in the field, along with real life case studies of theory in practice.  It explains challenging concepts in simple language for the newbie and detail explanations for the seasoned professional. You’ll find information about anything and everything related to business forecasting covering people, process, techniques, models, metrics, technology, data, and systems.

The author is in many ways the father of demand planning

The author and editor, Dr. Chaman Jain, is well known and regarded in the field and is in many ways the father of demand planning. Dr. Jain is Professor of Economics at St. John’s University, New York, where he mainly teaches a graduate course on business forecasting. He is the founder and also Chief Editor of the IBF‘s Journal of Business Forecasting. Over thirty seven-years ago he not only revolutionized the field but help provide an organization and structure for the advancement and growth of demand planning, forecasting, and Sales & Operations Planning (S&OP). During that time, he has written over 100 articles, and has authored/co-authored/edited nine books, seven in the area of forecasting and planning. His work, including this book, have helped defined best practices used the world over and became the foundation for the IBF body of knowledge.

This book not only revolutionized the field but helped provide a structure for the advancement of demand planning and forecasting

The book, Fundamentals of Demand Planning and Forecasting, format was created and reads more like a university textbook (in a good way). What Dr. Jain has done is an excellent job of using a collection of articles from various sources with examples and practical experiences organized by topic that goes from the basics of forecasting to theory to best and worst practices. Each section is easy for reference, is a great blend of facts that build on each other, and inform with helpful questions for review and additional suggested readings at the end of each section. The topics it includes are too numerous to list but a few that I have gone back to reread are those on S&OP and CPFR, regression, Box-Jenkins and ARIMA, and Neural Network modeling, performance metrics like WMAPE, and my constant reference back to the glossary.

In demand planning and forecasting, this is a classic piece of literature

I do not want to leave you with the impression that this is just a textbook. In demand planning and forecasting, this is a classic piece of literature and is very comprehensible and enjoyable to read, and is for anyone in the Forecasting and Demand field. It is a definitely a must for your library or recommended reading list. There is a reason as I go through books to review and recommend I felt I must start with this one. Whether you are planning to sit for the CPF or ACPF exams, a demand planner or forecaster wanting to advance your knowledge and career, or anyone asking what book should they read to learn about business forecasting and planning – if you have not already gotten and read the Fundamentals of Demand Planning and Forecasting by Dr. Jain, start there then come back to me when you are done before I recommend some others.