Comments for Demand Planning, S&OP/ IBP, Supply Planning, Business Forecasting Blog

Comment on Balancing Supply & Demand: The 5 Core Steps by Dustin Smith

Dustin Smith — Thu, 26 Mar 2020 13:07:49 +0000

I really appreciated this post. I just began working with a retail planning provider to help redesign and better assess my small, brick-and-mortar retail business, and we’ve touched on almost all of these in our consultations. Glad to know these are widely held ideas that actually work!

Comment on Should I Use Open Source Instead Of Demand Planning Software For Forecasting? by Melinda Santos

Melinda Santos — Wed, 19 Feb 2020 13:26:08 +0000

Great article! Alternatively, there are data modeling platforms that integrate with Excel. These platforms resolve the limitations of Excel in an enterprise environment by storing planning data, formulas, and business rules in a centralized server. Check out PowerExcel by PARIS Technologies (https://paristech.com/products/powerexcel/) — it has a powerful multi-dimensional database that makes 3-way planning, scenario modeling, rolling forecasts, and other forward-looking processes possible in native Excel spreadsheets.

Comment on How To Identify & Treat Outliers In Demand Planning by Thrishul

Thrishul — Fri, 07 Feb 2020 00:16:22 +0000

Nice article

Comment on How To Identify & Treat Outliers In Demand Planning by Klaus Spicher

Klaus Spicher — Thu, 06 Feb 2020 14:38:42 +0000

There s a new method for identifying outliers based on similarity measures. The process is simple. (1) Eliminating the outlier (set the value =0) The similarity of the new T/S compared with the original T/S will be say e.g. 68%. (2) Determine the target similarity – say 80%. (3) Calculate the replacement value R for the outlier, creating the target similarity of the the T/S with replaced outlier and the original T/S. The formula is simple and can be obtained from . The advantage of the method is to be applicable again on the T/S with first replacement value R again. The method also works for sporadic T/S (T/S with zero gaps).

Comment on Understanding Functional Mindsets In S&OP For Better Collaboration by Ankit T

Ankit T — Thu, 23 Jan 2020 23:10:37 +0000

Great article Dr. Lapide. You have touched upon a critical piece of S&OP puzzle. Have you come across companies that have utilized the personalities of people effectively, the way you have described? Those companies will be good subject for study and learning. Please advise.

Comment on Demand Planning Predictions For 2020 by Steven Van Aken

Steven Van Aken — Sun, 12 Jan 2020 20:48:10 +0000

Besides this trend, what do you think about concurrent planning platforms? Companies like Kinaxis, Arkieva, QAD DynaSys, etc.. offer a complete suite of Supply Chain planning functionalities that can be implemented per module.

What are the pros and cons of such systems? Which one would you recommend and why?

Comment on Predictive Analytics & Probabilistic Planning by Klaus Spicher

Klaus Spicher — Tue, 19 Nov 2019 17:12:51 +0000

Hi Mr. Wilson, I would like adding another aspect. Identifying the drivers of business and utilizing drivers for forecasting represents a necessary but not sufficient condition. All factors which are not documented in the company’s files will not contribute to the forecast quality. The interdependence of identified and non-identified drivers remains in the dark of forecast deviations. In case the identified drivers explain 50% of the forecast, It’s a very acceptable result – depending on the business branch or products. Cleverly applied statistics enable utilizing inherent (unidentified) drivers representing a complement to Predictive Analytics – or the other way round. – I see the danger that the hype driver of Predictive Analytics only report the advantages but missing (potential) problems. One approach is not able managing the VUCA-Business World. The decision problem remains on the planners’ level.

Comment on Predictive Analytics & Probabilistic Planning by Klaus Spicher

Klaus Spicher — Tue, 19 Nov 2019 16:48:57 +0000

Hi Mr. Wilson, I enjoy reading your papers. The logic of principles provide interesting common sense outcomes, as long as the the business world follows those principles. Nevertheless, for planners the transfer of the findings along “What-If’s” requires decisions influencing the the complete Supply Chain. Scenarios – a traditional approach for strategic planning, which no is broken down to the operational level due to Predictive Analytics tools, provide options for acting. But which option to follow? Predictive Analytics provides problems for the planner in operation. From all options finally decisions are required. Scenarios will support the In-House understanding the business. But, What-If, the planners next purchase order consists of several quantity options or a probabilistic range of quantities? Which company is interested discussing internal ‘scenarios’ with suppliers, also supplying competitors?

Comment on Using Excel To Present & Update Forecasts At The Demand Review by Mariusz Lesiewicz

Mariusz Lesiewicz — Mon, 04 Nov 2019 13:29:40 +0000

Hi Witek,

Algorithm takes into consideration 3 factors:
– Base sales – 12 month average
– Sales trend that user can select from pick list (e.g. 6 month trend is an growth index of last 6 month sales vs 6 month sales from analogical period 1 year earlier)
– Seasonality index for each month calculated on 2 years history

Yes, you can increase amount of product groups. If you want to learn more how to do it please drop me a message on LinkedIn, I will share with you instruction.

Mariusz

Comment on Using Excel To Present & Update Forecasts At The Demand Review by Witek Hubisz

Witek Hubisz — Wed, 30 Oct 2019 13:35:24 +0000

Hi Mariusz,
Are you using special algorithms to determinate forecast?
I have downloaded your version. It seems very similar to that I’ve created and been using over the years. 😉 It seems that you can actually increase amount of product groups, is it correct?