Maria Simos CEO e-forecasting.com

Last night while I was at the joint APICS/IBF/CSCMP Holiday Networking Collaborative in Boston, MA these three words came to mind, “Strength in numbers.”  But before I can explain these three simple words, I should first explain all the abbreviations, right?   APICS is the Association for Operations Management, IBF is the Institute of Business Forecasting and CSCMP is the Council of Supply Chain Management Professionals.  These groups came together last night for a holiday party which was a perfect mix of work and play.

The night started with simple networking and visiting with the six sponsors of the evening: Archon Interactive LLC, Boston Strategies International, Demand Planning LLC, Demand Solutions, Marino Associates LLC and McInturff Associates.  Visiting sponsors was enhanced by the possibility of winning major prizes which attendees could be entered to win by getting stamped at the vendor’s booths (the banquet table was full of these prizes and they did the trick!).  After some networking, we all enjoyed a lovely meal at the Montvale Plaza where we were broken into groups by tables of 8.  Discussions of best practices began, aided by a complimentary bottle of red whine at each table.  During dessert Clark Merrill, a dynamic speaker from Dale Carnegie, gave a talk on ‘Soft Skills in a Tough Economy.’ With this lively presentation in mind, two panels were put together where we discussed sales and operations planning and lean manufacturing. The highlights of these panel discussions can be found here on my twitter stream.   Afterwords, the planned session wrapped with plenty of giveaways and door prizes.

The interesting thing was that after a full day at the office, fighting traffic and then attending this event which went until 930 PM, NO ONE rushed out the door.  In fact, it was quite the opposite.  People stuck around.  Most in the crowd continued to talk about lessons learned and to make connections.  The content was so good, the contacts so valuable that attendees lingered.  This got me thinking about strength in numbers and a discussion I had with one of the sponsors. It began when I asked him how membership has been through the recession.  Being an economist, my assumption would be that membership in associations with a focus on education, training and networking such as APICS, IBF and CSCMP would be high as workers would look to increase their skill set, network if they are unemployed, and work to raise the value of their careers to ensure future employment and growth.  It turns out that I’m a pretty good economist.  The sponsor I was speaking with confirmed my assumption and I learned that membership has done well through the recession.  Groups like these are such a huge source of support, training and sanity through recessions for job seekers and the currently employed alike.

Think about how nice it is to have a chance to talk about your job with people who actually understand what you do all day?  That is what happens when you attend an event like this if you are in demand planning or operations management.  You get a room full of head nods and understanding when you ask questions like “What kind of advice can you give if you have a hostile management environment when it comes to forecasting?” and you get some solid advice on the simple yet daunting question that is on many people’s minds, “How to get started with lean manufacturing?”

And if you are currently looking for a job, or you are in transition, it’s nice to rub elbows with those that were your peers and who you would like to be working with.  Miss talking about forecast error and six sigma? Sign on for an upcoming event, such as the next Boston APICS event to hear how Welch’s successfully implemented S&OP, or check out www.ibf.org to find out when their next chapter meeting will be and trust me, it will be like riding a bike.  There is strength in numbers, but you have to go be a part of these numbers, or groups, to reap the benefits.  Maybe this would be a good resolution for those who have not been feeling a sense of camaraderie recently.  If that’s what you are looking for, events like this is where it’s at.  My first time going, I already have a slew of new contacts that I know I can reach out to any time with questions, support or advice.  That’s the true value of strength in numbers.

Follow this link to find out how to start an IBF Chapter near you!

Maria Simos CEO e-forecasting.com

This is a good question. As I traveled down to Florida for the IBF’s Supply Chain Planning & Forecasting: Best Practices Conference w/ Advanced Practices in S&OP Forum I wasn’t sure which was harder to explain as a concept.  After a few days at conference I can, with confidence, say that Sales & Operations Planning (S&OP) is much easier.  I’ll save my understanding of exactly what Supercalifragilisticexpialidocious is for another time.

In order to recap this conference there are some strong overriding themes you must get acquainted with in regards to sales and operation planning and demand planning, as well as some key highlights that were found in some selected general sessions:

Innovation:To fully develop and be successful at sales and operations planning you need to be innovative in how you approach the whole process.  During the Toro presentation on “How Home Depot Synchronized their Supply Chain with Consumer Demand”, Nadim Zoberi stated, ‘innovation drives success.’  Using product innovation and building on their knowledge base, Toro is introducing a new line of battery operated mowers.  David Zatz from Post Foods shared in his presentation “How to improve Your Forecasts by Including Marketing’s View” that innovation, along with equity, price, merchandising and inventory work together as drivers for the forecasting process.

Trust: At times during the conference, I thought I was in marriage counseling sessions.  It is true that trust plays a huge role in yielding successful results in sales and operations planning and forecasting.  During the Keynote Presentation by OfficeMax’s Nikhil Sagar, he said that you need to build trust by example.  It’s important to share information, this is the first step in building trust with your suppliers, and even internally.  During the Round Table discussion, one of the tables I sat at was centered on Collaboration Within and Outside the Organization. Someone shared that if one of his company’s vendors provides them with a forecast, they are given a price break.  This, however, did not bode well for another planner at our table who then interjected, “But some of our vendors can be vendors for our competitors. How can we build trust?” And then, of course, there was the presentation by Liezl Smith of South Africa’s APICS who presented a slide saying that South Africa is faced with serious trust issues.  The world does not trust South Africa yet, although it may be the next frontier. How to build trust? Certainly seems worthy of further presentations and workshops at future conferences.

Dedicated Resources: Mike Levely from Xiameter/Dow Corning shared that one of the keys to their success in supply chain improvement was that they had a dedicated implementation team along with sub teams that were 100% focused on the transition.  In his presentation, “How Forecast Accuracy Impacts Inventory Costs” Joseph Motta from Navistar echoed this sentiment.  He advised implementing a change in business processes in several phases.  He has been in three system implementations and found that the most successful method use by organizations was in phases rather than a shotgun approach.  Both Mike and Joseph stressed that people should be dedicated to and best to fit the role.  Another neat tip that Mike gave us was that while goal setting and making a to-do list, you should also think of a ‘stop doing list‘ to improve your organization.  This will get you to start thinking differently and build new processes that are efficient as well as putting an end to doing non-value adding activities.

New this year to IBF conferences, was IBF Bingo! This was being played by conference attendees throughout the event.  The Bingo! board had a matrix of ways to enhance learning, collaboration and social media efforts.  Some of the cells included Meeting five new contacts, tweeting and asking a question during a session.  Ever competitive, people were enthusiastically playing along and working hard to get to Bingo and receive a nice prize. Unwittingly as attendees worked their way in columns or rows to hit Bingo!, they also,  got to meet five new contacts, tweet up a storm on the conference and have more dynamic sessions with more interactive question and answer sessions.  Tricky, tricky conference organizers.

Innovation, trust and dedicated resources are basic tenets that go beyond bringing your organization to the next level in terms of S&OP and forecasting.  Take a look at the online slide presentations to see what else was covered, or better yet, subscribe to the Journal of Business Forecasting and attend the next show.  Soon you’ll be singing the praises of S&OP too!

Maria Simos CEO e-forecasting.com

Teamwork, collaboration, transparency and increased profitability. Sounds like some Disney Magic, right?

Well based on the experiences shared from the panel at the Institute of Business Forecasting & Planning’s kickoff event on Sunday dubbed the ‘Advanced S&OP Practices Forum’ it’s in fact real and achievable.  The panel, which was an opening to IBF’s Supply Chain Planning & Forecasting: Best Practices Conference, spoke to an eager room of over 100 demand planners ready to listen and learn about how to take their own company’s S&OP to the next level.

Tom Wallace who was the MC for the afternoon session, gave us all a history lesson, sharing with us how the real founder of S&OP was not only ahead of his time and changed the way businesses operate, but was also sitting right in the room with us.  Dick Lang created Sales & Operations Planning, also known as S&OP, in the 70’s and sat just three rows ahead of me during the forum.  How lucky of a group was this to have the opportunity to attend this conference with Dick Ling who also would be leading a workshop the next morning called ‘How to Align Sales & Operations Planning with Strategic Intent.’  This elevated the excitement in the room and put the rest of the discussions into a greater context.

Before having the panelists take over, Tom shared some slides as a warm up.  He went over the four fundamentals of demand planning which are demand, supply, volume and mix.  He stressed the importance of looking at demand as being the driver. He went on to explain that if we do so  that demand and supply will become balanced, either by our own actions or external factors whether we like it or not.

There are a few key themes that resonating in all the panelists:

• S&OP will increase collaboration, communication and teamwork
• Top management needs to be involved so needs to be implemented top-down
• S&OP runs your business and needs to be part of your culture

Highlights from the panelist discussion, who Tom dubbed as ‘true innovators:’

Chase Winsam of Whirlpool Corporation – Chase took the mic but said that rather than speak about S&OP, he wanted to sing some karaoke. Instead of breaking into song however, he shared with us how Whirlpool was able to reduce forecast bias from 16% to 2% by implementing stronger S&OP practices, while also decreasing inventory dollars. This was all accomplished while maintaining 90% service levels.  An easy idiom he used during his presentation while showing us some outputs was “Get it graphical then think practical.” It is important to rationally think about the numbers and what they are telling you.

Grant Hoffman from Motorola – Grant got our attention quickly when he started his talk with the fact that Motorola had been losing $400 million a quarter during the recession.  The company’s focus turned to their relationships with their suppliers hoping to reduce shortages. This became a process they now call supplier S&OP.  His words of advice were that you need to start at the top, keep confidentiality when working externally, find the proper decision makers, do not be afraid to commit and to have immediate communication on late breaking news.  It may take up to six months to build a relationship with a supplier, but there is a lot of value in these relationships and they are well worth the effort.

Jay Nearnberg from Pfizer – Jay started his presentation by saying that innovation is so important in a stagnant economy like today (and like in the future as I know we are forecasting very low growth domestically and globally overall).  For Pfizer’s business, there is a strong push towards real-time.  Their dashboard as well as their forecast is updated every day.  Most of these overrides come from key customers, the knowledge of a promotional shift or new product information.  The ways that S&OP add value are manifold: cross functional engagement, the engagement of all  management levels, transparency of assumptions, shifts caused by situations, all departments get on the same page, and scenarios and trade offs are discussed along with pre and post-tracing.

Alan Milliekn from BASF – To round out the panel, Alan’s lively presentation shared how BASF uses S&OP to maximize gross profits globally.  Some benefits they have seen include a shift from local volume orientation (‘just keep running my plant’) to global value orientation (‘let’s make money, let’s make money!’).  Also, there is built in transparency and improved communication as well as improved teamwork and of course, increased profitability.

Wrapping up the presentation, the Q&A session brought about some key points:

• Technology is pushing companies to find competitive edge
• Processes do not necessarily change too much, but people do, most basic thing you can do is continually educate people (like attending IBF events like this)
• First you need to get the basics of S&OP then the enhancements will come, first need to balance demand and supply
• Takes just an average of one and a half hours of executives time each month to be involved

The afternoon forum was a real eye opener and sure got my attention. Especially in the difficult economic times that we are still in, it almost sounds like achieving successful S&OP can be a bit of Disney Magic when it comes to your bottom line.  The lineup of upcoming presentations over the next two days will help showcase case studies and insights on how to demystify some of this and take it back to our companies.

Maria Simos CEO e-forecasting.com

When the Institute of Business Forecasting & Planning (IBF) was formed, I was still in diapers. Around the same time that Dr. Jain had the novel idea of bringing business practitioners together to learn and grow together I was only crawling over my father’s journal article notes. I didn’t know it at the time, but early in the lifespan of the IBF my father, Dr. Evangelos Simos, was already in the midst of what has become a long and fruitful relationship between him and the organization. After attending his first IBF conference he was hooked, and has since worked to help solidify this professional group by providing advice and contributing an international outlook piece for the Journal of Business Forecasting (JBF). Now 30 years later I couldn’t help but smile when I opened my mail to find that same JBF I have known my whole life with all of its outstanding articles only it had a wonderful sleek new look.

Today the IBF is as strong as ever and I now work alongside my father doing economic research and consulting for our company e-forecasting.com. We work closely with the IBF regarding the organization as an important ally in the field of business forecasting and a real educational pioneer.  With our company, I do my best to follow the lead of the IBF in their cutting edge use of social media constantly staying ahead of the crowd when it comes to embracing new technologies. Over the last two years I’ve watched the LinkedIn groups, Facebook fan page and Twitter page help snowball their popularity and reach of the IBF, helping to build what is now a global brand.

It’s great to see that along with this digital adoption of social media, the IBF is not neglecting good old print.  This summer, the beloved JBF definitely received an ultimate makeover.

The new JBF continues to bring you the latest in research and trends as it always has. With each issue it brings in new case studies and methods from a variety of contributors from the business and academic side of the field. There are also ongoing contributions sprinkled in as well. My father’s piece on the global economic outlook made the cut and is still there.

Additionally, in what I call a “what-a-small world” coincidence,  Dr. Larry Lapide, who I was classmates with his daughter at Carnegie Mellon, also writes a recurring article for the journal. In the latest issue of the JBF Dr. Lapide, an affiliate at MIT and a professor at UMASS-Boston, shares a bit of research on predictive metrics which one of his MIT grad students completed.

What else can you find in the revamped JBF? The lead article, authored by Dr. Jain and Mark Covas gives us Six Rules for Effective Demand Planning in a Volatile Economy. That should come in pretty handy, especially if we see a double dip. Steve Keifer, VP of GXS, champions the use of some forward-looking demand signals, rather than hailing POS data as the all-mighty. Rounding out the JBF Summer 2010 issue, Sara Brumbaugh, the founder of Ceres Analytics, gives a very in depth view on how to use marketing data to strengthen forecasts. It is a must read. The final piece, by Jack Malehorn takes a look at the domestic economic outlook, sharing forecast figures from top US economists on GDP, inflation and other key macroeconomic variables which are key forecast drivers.

It sounds pretty much like the same solid publication you’ve seen all these years, right? Well where the cutting edge educational content is concerned it is, and then it isn’t. It’s actually pretty. Smart and pretty, a killer combo. The new design and color layout help make the journal a bit livelier and easier to read. Even I can admit that reading through concepts like regression analysis, MAPE and inventory levels can be dry at times. My favorite update is the expanded Executive Summary at the beginning of each major article. It gives a nice high-level view of what’s in store so you can bookmark the article for later. There’s also info on upcoming events and online training with reminders to stay connected with social media and get involved.

IBF continues to be a leader. Not just in demand planning and forecasting, but as seen with the updated JBF and social media efforts, it is now serving as a true role model for organizations that strive to adapt and stay relevant. I look forward to continuing watching the IBF grow and help me grow professionally as well. What will the next 30 years of IBF look like? I can’t wait to find out.

Maria E Simos
CEO
e-forecasting.com

View A Preview of the JBF With It’s New Face Lift