In the late 1990s, the energy bar category experienced rapid growth and consolidation. As huge, multinational food companies began to acquire CLIF Bar’s competitors, Gary and his wife, Kit Crawford, were being pressured to sell their business. In 2001, they made the brave and bold decision to keep Clif Bar independent, allowing them to develop an innovative business model guided by Five Aspirations—Sustaining its Business, its Brands, its People, its Community and the Planet. CLIF Bar has proven that bringing sustainability into all parts of the business is a model for success.

In 2012 CLIF Bar decided it was time to launch a formal S&OP process. A cross functional project group was formed to assess, design and implement a new S&OP process for Clif. The team met weekly and began by documenting the current state. After the current state process map was created, the team spent a month getting educated on best practice S&OP. The next task was to design the future state process for Clif. It needed to be something the Clif culture could accept and embrace. Roles and responsibilities were clearly defined. Critical feeds into the new process were re-looked at and changed where needed. The final task was communicating and getting buy-in to the new process.

Finally, we successfully launched the new process called “Tour de SOMBA” in January 2013. This effective S&OP process has provided Clif with a means of gaining greater control over the business while improving forecast accuracy.

Here are some of the key benefits we have seen as a result of this success:

1. Measuring performance to drive improvement
2. Better visibility to risks & upsides by brand
3. Securing capacity to deliver business growth and meeting customer service expectations
4. Improved trust throughout the team with one process and clear accountabilities

In May we’ll be leading a free IBF Webinar on the same topic.  Click HERE to register.

Also, we’ll be at the IBF Scottsdale conference next month sharing our experience in person. Some of the learning’s we plan to share include:

• What is the critical path to launching an S&OP process
• What are some key resources for best practice S&OP
• Who needs to be involved
• What does the Executive meeting involve
• Sample process maps and templates to use during a redesign

See you there!

Victoria Grillo, CPF
Sr. Director of Demand Planning
Clif Bar & Company

In any organization, two functions that play a key role in generating business are Sales and Marketing, neither of which can do it alone. They need each other’s support, as well as that of Operations. Since each function has different roles and responsibilities and are evaluated on different sets of metrics, their agendas don’t align, which become a source of tension. The key concern of Sales is selling, the metric on which it is evaluated; Marketing, increasing market share, and brand building; and Operations is responsible for improving production efficiency and providing optimal customer service with minimum inventory.

The theme of this special issue of the IBF’s Journal of Business Forecasting (JBF) is to investigate the sources of tension across these functions, and what can be done to create harmony. We asked various practitioners to share with us their experiences. Patrick Bower and Glen Fossella believe that tension is healthy as long as it is managed, because many new ideas result from opposing views. In their experience, tension arises from using different and conflicting metrics, unrealistic expectations, lack of information sharing, and not understanding the language of others. Sales forecasts are ignored in favor of stretched goals, orders are accepted without capacity consideration, packaging is changed without considering its impact on inventory and obsolete expense, and criticism is intended simply for personal or political reasons. Tension can be minimized if we understand the constraints of others, speak their language, and think about the interest of the company as a whole. Even if Sales is willing to cooperate, it may not have full knowledge of customer plans due to different timelines, and/or limited access to people who have relevant information. Marketing would certainly benefit if everything is on the table—what is known and what is not. This will help all functions to understand the risks; and if the plan fails to meet expectations, why?

Mark Lawless believes that tension would be greatly minimized if other functions understand that they would receive immense benefit by cooperating—quid pro quo. Jonathan Boult discusses how his company, Goodyear, built cross-functional collaboration within an organization, as well as with its customers. Building in bonus compensation within KPIs such as forecast accuracy, can also help. He further adds that the idea of collaboration catches on fast, particularly during difficult times. In his company, it occurred when demand was outstripping supply, which created a number of problems including large backlogs and poor customer service.

Charles W. Chase, Jr., and Larry Lapide show how and why cross-functional collaboration can be used to grow, not only revenue but also profit. Kevin Reim shows how Marketing can measure the impact of different types of promotions, which can be used to increase sales and profit. Ed Thompson feels that the solution to relieving tension lies in educating Sales, Marketing, and Operations, defining their roles and responsibilities, and providing access to systems for sharing and analyzing information. Although demand is mainly driven by Sales and Marketing, and forecasting is primarily done by Operations, to reap the full benefits of their efforts, they have to put their own agendas aside, and work together for a common goal. This special issue of the Journal of Business Forecasting shows how.

Chaman L. Jain
Chief Editor, Journal of Business Forecasting (JBF)
St. John’s University
EMAIL: jainc [at] stjohns.edu

Click here to DOWNLOAD a sample copy of this special issue of the Journal of Business Forecasting (JBF)

Click here to become an IBF member and receive a JBF subscription FREE

FEATURED ARTICLES:

The S&OP Tension Convention: Two S&OP Pros Square Off on the Issue of Conflict within the Process
By Patrick Bower and Glen Fossella

The View from the Sales and Marketing Organizations
By Mark J. Lawless

Demand Planning Needs Customer Profitability
By Larry Lapide

How to Get Buy-In to a Demand Planning Process: A Case Study
By Jonathan Boult, CPF

Using Demand Sensing and Shaping to Improve Demand Forecasting
By Charles W. Chase, Jr.

Striking a Balance between Sales and Operations in the Forecasting Process
By Ed Thompson

How to Measure the Impact of Different Marketing Efforts
By Kevin Reim

Emerging Economies Stall Growth in Industrial Countries
By Evangelos Otto Simos, Ph.D.

2014: The Consensus Outlook
By Jack Malehorn

Answers to Your Forecasting Questions
By Chaman L. Jain, St. John’s University

Click here to DOWNLOAD a sample copy of this special issue of the Journal of Business Forecasting (JBF)

Click here to become an IBF member and receive a JBF subscription FREE

Sylvia Starnes

Over the years, I have been asked this question many times and there are multiple thoughts on the matter. However, as a practitioner, I have a realistic, hands-on, down in the dirt, approach to the answer.  Having worked in three different manufacturing industries, I have seen several different ways the demand planner is hired and developed: 1) Outside hire with experience, 2) Internal promotion, 3) Graduate Intern, and 4) a Warm Body. Hiring managers tend to get caught up in the hiring process but the avenue of hire is not as important as the specific skills and attributes that enable a person to become a successful demand planner.

How Long Does it Take To Develop A Demand Planner?

Do you need an experienced employee? The first question to ask yourself is, do you have time to develop an internal candidate? It is my experience that it takes a minimum of one year to develop a demand planner. The first and most important qualification is the ability to analyze the situation, make knowledgeable decisions and influence others by getting their buy-in.   In today’s world of customer collaboration, soft skills are just as important as the mathematics and statistical background of a demand planner.The ability to lead by collective collaboration is a must.  In consensus forecasting, this individual should pave the way through the many silos within the organization.

Analytical Skills Are Key in Demand Planning, But That’s Not All

How important are analytical skills? Of course, a good mathematic background is essential; but the ability to make the numbers tangible for others is a key ingredient. The demand planner must be able to analyze the data and use the data to communicate effectively.  All too often I see demand planners who can’t get their head out of the numbers long enough to build the bridge. When conflicts arise and the pressure for a decision is necessary they get caught in analysis paralysis. Effective communication skills and the confidence to deliver the message are critical.  This individual must be able to see the small details and the big picture and know which is needed and when.
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Advanced Computer Skills As Standard

Good computer skills are the glue that will hold it all together.  Even though we say that our systems are totally integrated, we know that most of us have a little more digging in the details to do. Advanced Excel skills such as Vlookups, Pivot Tables, and Macros are necessary to link all the data together. A demand planner must be able to understand the hierarchy process of the industry and connect the necessary data. Presentations and communication will flow much better if the demand planner has the skills to develop and analyze the data which will be used to tell the story to multiple levels of management and customers.

Newcomers To Demand Planning: Expand Your Knowledge of Supply Chain

Supply Chain knowledge is the foundation for the demand planner.  A degree in Business, Engineering, Logistics or 5 years of demand planning experience tends to provide a high-quality start.  Moreover, I have found that most people think they understand basic supply chain theory; however, that could not be further from the truth. Most have only been exposed to a small segment of supply chain knowledge that can lead to poor planning and decision making.  The most fundamental part of building the knowledge necessary is to require the demand planner to have or obtain advanced training in the discipline of forecasting and supply chain. A professional certification is a huge benefit when linked to continuing education courses (CECs). Without this foundation, many will continue to operate within the silos which blind the supply chain view of the entire organization.

In closing, I have been in the forecasting field for close to 20 years and these are my observations, in an effort to learn more…please provide your feedback. What Makes A Good Demand Planner? Maybe you think it is snails and puppy dog tails?

Sylvia Starnes
Market Planning
Continental Tire

The Institute of Business Forecasting & Planning, IBF, wishes to congratulate our 2013 Business Forecasting & Planning Recognition Awards Winners. The IBF has established the Business Forecasting & Planning Recognition awards to recognize the best and most innovative thought leaders, solutions and ideas in the field. This year’s winners are:

Volume 32 Issue 3
Fall 2013

Click here to DOWNLOAD a sample copy of the latest Journal of Business Forecasting (JBF)

Click HERE to become an IBF member and get a JBF subscription FREE

FEATURED ARTICLES:

“How to Use What-If Analysis in Sales and Operations Planning”
By Sujit K. Singh and Jane B. Lee

In uncertain markets, what-if analysis is a must for demand and supply planning. The authors show how to use it by discussing a number of case studies, and the way to determine their impact. To make the most of this analysis, one has to go beyond standard technologies and use the one that is specific to this type of analysis.

“S&OP: An Opportunity to Lead from the Middle”
By John Hobby and Amy Jaeger

Based on their experience, the authors describe in detail how to develop and implement a robust S&OP process. To develop it, you need buy-in from upper management, support from all other stakeholders, clearly defined goals and a plan to achieve them, and deadlines when the project will start rolling and begin yielding benefits. It is a long, drawn-out process, but patience, persistence, and hard work will pay off in the end.

“Supply’s Demand-Shaping Roles”
By Larry Lapide

This column deals with demand-shaping activities, the primary responsibility of marketing and sales managers. However, while not responsible for demand-shaping per se, supply chain managers should play two important roles. The first of these is ensuring that supply is in place to meet all anticipated future demand. The second, often overlooked by these managers, is advocating that demand-shaping be done with supply in mind. The second role involves a better alignment of demand with potential available supply, and is aimed at maximizing profitability, in contrast to just maximizing revenues.

“Forecasting Challenges of the Spare Parts Industry”
By Michael Morris

Forecasting the demand for spare parts is very much different from finished goods. The author describes the unique problems that occur when forecasting spare parts, and how to best deal with them. He also discusses SKU proliferation as well as the legal obligations that accompany forecasting spare parts.

“Sales & Operations Planning: Sales’ Insight in the Planning Process”
By Andrew S. McCall

Sales input is the key to the success of an S&OP process. The author explains in detail how to use it and why. To make the process robust, we need executive support, sales team engagement, leverage, and accountability. The best way to leverage the input of Sales is to focus on the goals they are pursuing, and making transparent their input as well as ensuring they are adding value.

“Answers to Your Forecasting Questions”
By Chaman L. Jain, St. John’s University

“In a Stagflation Phase from Lack of Private Investment”
By Evangelos Otto Simos, Ph.D.

“The U.S. Economy…A Challenging Recovery… Sidestepping into the End of the Year”
By Jack Malehorn

Click HERE to become an IBF member and get a JBF subscription FREE

The Journal of Business Forecasting (JBF) has been providing jargon-free articles on how to improve demand planning, forecasting, supply chain, and S&OP, step-by-step for over 30 years. A subscription to the JBF comes with IBF membership at no additional cost.