Scott Roy

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Starting My Career In Demand Planning

A few years ago I found myself reviewing an Institute of Business Forecasting & Planning – IBF presentation that I was going to give the next day when I realized that I had used the word knowledge about five times in just the first few slides. I sat back for a moment and realized that I really didn’t know what knowledge meant? I had some vague understating; but what did it really mean?  I took a quick trip to Wikipedia for a definition; “The term knowledge is used to mean the confident understanding of a subject with the ability to use it for a specific purpose.” While I was there I looked up another word; “novice: a person who is new to a field or activity.”

Demand Planning Is Easy, Right?!

This caused me to even ponder more on how we go from novice to knowledge! I did not start my career planning to be in the field of demand planning. I actually started off in public accounting and then found my way to cost accounting then into information system and then into operations and supply chain management.  While I was working in supply chain, I went through the APICS certification process, where I read about forecasting and demand planning. When a job in demand planning opened up down the road, at a point in my life when I needed a new job, I figured demand planning; how hard could this be?  At my new job my book smarts said, put about three years of sales history into some forecasting software, sprinkle a little magic dust and out comes a forecast!

I created my first forecast that way.  However, being all smart and smug about what I thought I knew, I then proceeded to spend the next year figuring out how to fix all of the things I had done wrong.  I was a novice.  I wasn’t even smart enough to know what I didn’t know!  I sort of knew what to do, but had no clue why I was really doing it and what to watch out for. I think it’s kind of like golf, everyone thinks they can do it; you take a club and hit a ball into a hole…. how hard could that be?? This is the point in my career where I started looking for some real education on how to do demand planning & forecasting the right way and this is when I came across the Institute of Business Forecasting & Planning – IBF.

Be Wary of Fancy New Systems

Nine years ago from today, I started my demand planning journey from novice to knowledge. I started off on the cheap ordering some conference proceedings and then finally went to my first IBF conference.  I was learning from all of the mistakes that I had made, but needing to keep my job for a few more years; IBF really put me on the fast track to a better understanding of what I was really supposed to be doing! I found the combination of insights from consultants and real life experience from practitioners really made the difference. Going back to my golfing example, in golf you need to have different clubs for different situations, and know how to read the course.  However, for the most part, I’ve always tried to steer clear of consultants as they seem to be always trying to sell you a “new golf club” that you don’t understand how to use, which cost a lot of money!  But, to the contrary, I have actually become more tolerant with consultants, especially through my experience with Mike Gilliland a frequent IBF contributor and IBF Board of Adviser. He seems to care more about sharing his great knowledge of demand planning than selling you anything. (There! I went and used that word knowledge again as when it comes to Mike, he knows how to get the ball in the cup.  Plus, he knows how to apply his skills in a way to get those desired results!)

Today when it comes to my view of demand planning, I rely on using a few golf clubs very well.  I don’t do a lot of fancy things, just keeping it simple.  I do the things I can understand.  Another key thing about golf and demand planning, not all of the courses are made equal. Before you pick up a golf club, you must understand what you are up against; get a lay of the land and understand what the hazards are.  My first year on the job, I admit, I was  embarrassed.  Luckily, I was a quick learner with a lot of help from IBF and many dedicated professionals who were willing to share their knowledge of the “game!”

To fast track yourself from novice to knowledge, getting help from organizations like IBF really help for demand planning & forecasting.  It would be great to hear how you got into demand planning and forecasting?  It would also be great to hear your stories of going from novice to knowledge in your demand planning, forecasting, and supply chain experience….. the people and organizations that have helped you understand the game and take “stroke off your score!”

Scott Roy
Collaboration Planning
Wells Dairy Inc

Scott Roy

In February in the States is when baseball spring training begins. On the first day of training, all of the players congregate to practice in anticipation of a successful season. Even though all of these athletes have been playing baseball for most of their lives, they still start the season with spring training. This includes endless drills of warming up, throwing, catching, pitching, running, stretching, hitting, and more. Anyone who has ever played a sport will tell you it’s all about the fundamentals and such drills help to maintain them.

So why as a supply chain professional am I talking about baseball and spring training? Well, because like athletes, every professional needs to go back to the fundamentals. My boss tells me “if you keep on doing what you’ve always done, you’ll keep on getting what you’ve always got”. Therefore, is what you’re getting good enough? Could you be doing things better, smarter? The answer is yes. Then, why not take a time out and go back to your basics?

At least once a year I try to attend an IBF event. Going to an IBF conference allows me the time to step back and think about some of those fundamentals. It helps me to reestablish those ideas and concepts that I may have forgotten. It allows me to hear from professionals who are not just “doing what they’ve always done “. But, hear from professionals sharing knowledge from newly improved processes, ideas, concepts, and techniques that work for them. At every IBF conference I take numerous pages of notes, trying to capture the essence of each presentation. I talk, connect and meet so many like minded folks, which is one of the best parts of attending. Many of these connections have become lifetime friends too. It’s learning, sharing and advancing, IBF’s new motto in just a few days. And when I return back to the office, I then try to think of that golden nugget, that game changing idea which can make all the difference in my process. For me personally, the IBF value has been instrumental and crucial to my knowledge and career.

And, that is why I am looking forward to attending the upcoming annual conference in Scottsdale Arizona. I highly recommend it to any demand planning, forecasting, S&OP, analytics, and supply chain professional. Also, the IBF is so much more than a conference producing organization. It is the one stop for a complete body of knowledge in this industry that includes:

• Conferences/ Tutorials
• On-line Training
• In-house training
• Boot-Camps
• Chapter Meetings/ Webinars
• Certification
• Benchmarking Reports
• Publication — Journal of Business Forecasting (JBF)
• Industry leading books

and so much more!

Again, it’s about maintaining the fundamentals, which I will be speaking on as a presenter in Scottsdale Arizona at the end of this month. Specifically, “Improving Demand Planning Performance.” Hopefully, I’ll get to connect with you there!

Take the time as it’s time for some spring training ….

Scott Roy
Collaboration Planning Manager
Wells Enterprises, Inc.

Scott Roy

I was asked recently to clarify my previous objections to a “One Number” planning world! In the late 90’s and early 2000’s there was a movement underfoot to drive the entire organization from a single operating number. In theory that would be a good thing as long as you have the right number. Too many times that one number was driven by finance and in actuality the budget. What ended up happening next was everyone else was left to reverse engineering the budget down to item level forecast or sales plans. In my experience the budget is what the company wants or wishes to happen, not necessarily what is going to happen

When it comes to Sales and Operations Planning (S&OP) you do need to have “One” number that you are executing towards; production planning, purchasing, inventory management, plant operations.   In most companies that one number is not the budget but a demand plan or demand forecast. The demand plan should be a plan that represents the best indication of the future adjusted to the risk that the company wants to plan/execute against. This risk should be made clear in the S&OP process and bought in by everyone. You use the S&OP meeting to develop plans to cover the uncertainties and risk in any plan by maybe deciding to enhance your inventory position or getting more capacity lined up. You want a demand plan to be realistic and probable.

In reality you will have multiple numbers and they will all have a role in the business. You will most likely have a revenue budget, sales targets, and other numbers that people have created.  What you do now is plan to the demand plan and manage to the gap in those other numbers; call them out, make them visible but don’t force all the numbers together for the sake of having One Number.

The bottom line is S &OP has to execute against one number the demand plan/forecast.  You will have other numbers, but you manage to the gaps.  Don’t force a number for the sake of having one number.  The demand plan should be the most realistic and probable out come of the future!

Scott Roy
Collaboration Planning
Wells Dairy Inc

Scott Roy

I always look forward to the IBF’s annual Consumer Products & Retail Forecasting Forum. It gives me a chance to validate the direction we are taking our own forecasting and demand planning processes.  There were many different themes that came out of the IBF Conference.  The one that resonated with me the most was getting closer to the customer.   Anderson Cheng, Senior Demand Planner & Hannah Petru, Demand Planner both from NESTLE USA were a Dynamic Duo at the conference.  They did a wonderful job in explaining the processes that they have in place to fill the gap between product shipments and product consumption. They are making great strides in moving from “Push” forecasting to into the ‘Pull” world.

The “Push” world reminds me of the North Korean guided missile program….they launch their missiles into space with a planned trajectory, but in reality have no clue where it is going? When we lack that view into the supply chain, we only see our shipments and a delayed view of consumption.  Then in between, there is a big blur or black hole!

Many CPG companies have commented this year that they are feeling distribution warehouses and retail chains are backing off building inventory that they carried in the past.

In this type of economy we are seeing a reverse “bullwhip effect.” As the supply chain drains its inventory, a supplier could overreact and pull back too much.

Moving into the “Pull” world comes down to cost and benefit.  How much of an investment in systems, data, and people is it going to cost the organization compared to the benefits derived from a seamless supply chain?

I am not a lazy demand planner, but I always believed that when it comes to demand planning, less is more.  And pursue the next level of complexity when you are forced to due to not reaching your goals.

I think that we are all getting to the point, if we want to or not, of joining Nestles path into the ‘Pull” forecasting world.

Your comments and experience are welcome

Scott Roy
Collaboration Planning
Wells Dairy Inc