Comments on: Own Worst Enemy? The 8 Biases To Avoid In Forecasting https://demand-planning.com/2018/04/12/8-biases-to-avoid-in-forecasting/ S&OP/ IBP, Demand Planning, Supply Chain Planning, Business Forecasting Blog Fri, 20 Apr 2018 00:20:15 +0000 hourly 1 https://wordpress.org/?v=6.6.4 By: Stefan de Kok https://demand-planning.com/2018/04/12/8-biases-to-avoid-in-forecasting/#comment-3277 Fri, 13 Apr 2018 22:12:14 +0000 https://demand-planning.com/?p=6668#comment-3277 What kind of bias would lead any forecaster to believe 52% of forecasts being worse than a naive forecast or random walk is “staggering”?

If the forecast was equally good as the naive of random then roughly 50% of those forecasts would be worse. So yes, given, forecasts being worse than naive, is bad. But certainly not surprising, and a 2% margin is anything but staggering.

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