Comments on: 2012 Forecasting Performance Objectives https://demand-planning.com/2011/12/15/2012-forecasting-performance-objectives/ S&OP/ IBP, Demand Planning, Supply Chain Planning, Business Forecasting Blog Tue, 19 Jun 2012 18:13:45 +0000 hourly 1 https://wordpress.org/?v=6.6.4 By: Patrick Boyle https://demand-planning.com/2011/12/15/2012-forecasting-performance-objectives/#comment-176 Tue, 19 Jun 2012 18:13:45 +0000 https://demand-planning.com/?p=1293#comment-176 Mike…I must respectfully disagree. While reading this, I got stuck on something you said in the very beginning about setting forecast performance objectives. You stated that, “The organization with best-in-class forecast accuracy probably achieves this because they have the easiest to forecast demand.” My problem is the word PROBABLY. It is a pretty huge leap into the concept of “Forecastability”and FVA in general to hang on a PROBABLY. I would be much more confident in the concepts and ideas discussed without so much riding on the PROBABLY.

Benchmarks in general, at that aggregate level, don’t really do much to get beyond the PROBABLY. We have found though that latching on to an idea similar to “forecastability” is helpful in defining how a company can target their improvement efforts. It is something Dr Larry Lapide at MIT calls the “Forecast Environment.” Segementing your product characteristics along multiple dimensions like volume, time horizons, variability, etc. can help you better determine where your forecasting challenges are versus where you are really good at obtaining accurate forecasts. We don’t really stop there though…because while product characteristics go a long way to defining a company’s forecast environment, other factors like demand planning practices or technology are influencers to forecast accuracy performance. In our newest membership group we are working with over 30 divisions of major CPG companies to perform a segmented benchmarking approach to define performance along both those product dimensions and process drivers which can help company’s set realistic objectives and define performance gaps which will enable process improvement. Check this out to find out more:

http://www.chainalytics.com/what-we-do/supply-chain-intelligence/sales-operations-variability-consortium/

I think you may find it interesting.

Patrick Boyle

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