Comments on: New Product Forecasting: Special Issue of the Journal of Business Forecasting (JBF)

By: Marcin

Marcin — Wed, 13 Feb 2013 08:43:51 +0000

The main thing in new product forecasting is: who is doing the forecast and who has the final decision how it should look like.

When Marketing/ Trade-marketing or others involved in NPD has the right to decide or influence on the forecast most of the time it will be overestimated (“we have a success on the paper before product launch”).

So it is easy: you have to secure three things:
1. It should be done by independent (from project owner/ management influence) Demand Planning specialist
2. He should be supported with all needed information
3. Company should have good quality and EXPERIENCED Demand Specialist
(experienced in new product forecasting, knowing the market segment)

There are few methods how one can forecast NPD I have always try to do it in several ways.

By: admin

admin — Wed, 06 Feb 2013 21:43:01 +0000

Hi Tony, yes. And those aspirations are not forecasts, but just a goal or a wish for that matter.

There are structured ways to minimize risk for new product launches. But time and time again at many companies, the forecaster is unable gain credibility with management.

By: Tony

Tony — Wed, 06 Feb 2013 13:50:14 +0000

I see the problem with forecasts that are just aspirations and not actually based on anything.

I agree it’s not easy…